9.13.2019

NFL Picks - Week 2

Sunday Morning

San Francisco @ Cincinnati
If you choose to watch this game, be prepared to see the clip of Joe Montana’s Super Bowl XXIII winning TD pass to John Taylor at least six times. Also, you might catch a highlight from that other Super Bowl these teams played in. A lot of people don’t remember the first Niners/Bengals Super Bowl from the 80s. And I say that based solely on conjecture. I don’t think I’ve ever talked to anybody about that game, and I absolutely haven’t polled a wide enough sample size to have a good idea of what percentage of the population has any knowledge of it taking place. But yeah, like I said not many people remember Super Bowl XVII. Oh whoops, it was actually Super Bowl XVI. Wait a minute, do I remember the game? What was the score? Did it even actually happen? The only reason I thought it did was because Cris Collinsworth bragged to me that he had 100 yards receiving in a Super Bowl once. He said it was Super Bowl XVI, but I never bothered to verify. Hmm, I’ll have to get back to you about this.

Bengals 23-20




Los Angeles Chargers @ Detroit 
Last week, with their starting kicker hurt, the Chargers turned to first year punter Ty Long to pull double duty. He performed admirably, which is borderline stunning for a Chargers kicker, by converting all three of his extra point attempts and nailing a 40 yard field goal. It’s still TBD whether or not LA's starter Michael Badgley will be returning for this match-up, but I for one hope that he doesn’t. Not because I have anything against the guy, I just want Long to handle the kicking duties again, and make another 40 yarder, so that we can see the headline: Ty Long Ties Long. It’s the storyline that I’ll be monitoring most closely this week.

Chargers 31-21




Minnesota @ Green Bay
The Vikings manhandled the Falcons in Week 1 en route to a 28-12 victory. And how many passes did Kirk Cousins throw in his team’s win? 10. Cousins went 8-10 for 98 yards. And I say bravo! In today’s modern NFL where everyone says you have to throw to win, Cousins has proved that when your defense forces 3 turnovers, and the special teams blocks a punt, you don’t necessarily need to throw the ball 30+ times to compete. Meanwhile, the Packers only scored 10 points in their opening win at Chicago. In the process they proved that you don’t need offensive fireworks to prevail, you just need to be playing against Mitchell Trubisky. But who wins this Sunday? I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cousins go 1-1 for 99 yards and 1 TD in an 8-7 loss to Green Bay. That’s the kind of hyper-efficiency we’re dealing with on both sides here. But I suppose I should guess something a little more realistic. After all, that’s what you come here for, right? The realism.

Vikings 20-19




Indianapolis @ Tennessee
I don’t think anybody wanted Andrew Luck to retire, but I’m guessing the Titans weren’t extremely disappointed by his decision. It’s not they’re jerks (though Marcus Mariota seems like a real bastard, don’t be fooled by his calm demeanor and sterling reputation), it’s that they just couldn’t beat Andrew Luck. And I’m not exaggerating, they literally never beat him. Luck went 12-0 against Tennessee. The old saying goes: “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.” Well if you can’t join ‘em, you can always hope that they’ll retire prematurely. The sea has now parted for the Titans. No longer do they have only 14 winnable games on their schedule. And judging from their Week 1 romp in Cleveland they’re invigorated by that prospect. 

Titans 27-20




New England @ Miami
Normally a trip to Miami has been a stumbling block for the Patriots, with the Dolphins winning five of the last six games played in America’s finest state. So normally it’s circled on New England’s calendar as a potential problem. This season it’s circled on the NFL’s calendar as a potential problem, because afterwards they may have to address the issue of the league’s sudden competitive imbalance. I’m tempted to pick this score to approach the all-time record rout of 73-0 (from the 1940 NFL Title game in which the Bears kicked so many PATs into the stands that they were forced to go for two after their last few TDs due to a shortage of balls (that's actually real)), but I suspect that the Antonio Brown will be such a team cancer that he instantly poisons the culture in New England, causing their margin of victory to be a paltry 40ish.

Patriots 45-3




Buffalo @ New York Giants
If you looked solely at the amount of points these teams scored in Week 1 you might assume they’re on equal footing. You’d also be pretty dumb though. Sure they both scored 17 points last Sunday, but did you even bother to look at how many points they gave up? What’s going on with you? Sometimes I wonder if you even know football. Maybe I'm just on a higher level. Anyway, as for this game ... Um ... Hey, did ya ever notice how these teams have similar colors? Also they played in a Super Bowl once. So that should be interesting to keep an eye on. 

Bills 16-12




Seattle @ Pittsburgh 
Pete Carroll has long preached the motto “It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.” It’s a nice sentiment, but unfortunately it seems like Pete believes that means you have to start poorly. At least that’s what one could infer based on the Seahawks’ routinely sluggish beginnings to games and recent seasons on the whole. Look, I’m all for growth and improvement, but it couldn’t hurt to try to start off well and then just keep building off of that, right? Seattle managed to slip away with a win last week, but beating the Bengals by 1 point at home is sort of like microwaving a frozen dinner. Yes, you accomplished what you set out to do by eating a warm meal, but don’t be offended if no one congratulates you for it. The Hawks will need a few more metaphorical culinary flourishes when they travel to Pittsburgh to take on a Steelers team that figures to be real peeved after being embarrassed by the Patriots on national TV. Whether or not said peevishness will result in improved play is anybody’s guess, but one thing we can be certain of is that ... um ... Whoops, I didn’t really know what I was going to say there, I just started typing, and now I look like a real moron. Whoa, Pete Carroll was right! Finishing is the important part. Now I have to pick Seattle.

Seahawks 27-24




Dallas @ Washington
 Sure, Dak Prescott was impressive against the Giants in Week 1, but let’s also give some credit to Case Keenum. In his Washington debut he threw for 344 yards and 3TDs in a one dimensional offense that only mustered 28 yards rushing. Just when we think we can count this guy out he comes storming back to have a serviceable enough season that he catches on with a different, quarterback-needy team the next year. Washington is now the fourth squad in four years Keenum has started for. He’s played in 58 career games, but never more than 16 with any single team. Taking all of this into consideration I don’t think it’s too early to start speculating on where Case will be playing in 2020. I’m going to guess Tampa, and I’m setting a reminder in my phone right now to revisit this in about 9 months. 

Cowboys 30-16




Arizona @ Baltimore 
After an up and down opener it’s hard to know exactly what to make out of this Cardinals squad. So far though it really seems like they play to the level of their competition. And I mean exactly to that level, because they tied the Lions in their first game. It will likely be tougher to match a Ravens team that looked unbeatable in Week 1. Of course, Baltimore was playing the Dolphins, and as of now it’s unclear whether or not a 49 point win over Miami should be considered impressive. 

Ravens 33-21




Jacksonville @ Houston
Last week the Jags opened their season at home in the swampy 90 degree heat of Jacksonville and Myles Jack lost his mind as a result. He was ejected from the game for throwing a punch, refused to leave the field, appeared to attempt to go after a ref, had to be escorted off the field by two Jags staffers, and then seemed to feign fainting in a failed last-ditch effort to escape his escorts and get back on the field. Sometimes a player just feels too much inside. And then other times a player’s brain is melted by the heat and there’s no turning back. Speaking of players’ bodies deteriorating, if Deshaun Watson keeps absorbing the kind of hits he took in Week 1 he’ll likely be wheeling himself to the field in a Rascal scooter by Week 6. And he’ll probably still throw for 3 TDs. 

Texans 34-17




Sunday Afternoon

Kansas City @ Oakland
In Week 1’s nightcap of Monday Night Football the Raiders proudly proclaimed that they didn’t need the petulant receiver, who shall no longer be spoken of in Oakland, to win football games. Heck, they’re probably better off without him! And I agree! ... As long as they get to play the Broncos every week. I checked the schedule though, and unfortunately that’s not the case. In fact, the 3 time defending AFC West champs are coming to town on Sunday, and after a 40 point performance in their opener, the Chiefs seem to have picked up right where they left off. Though if there’s one team that could slow KC down it may be the Raiders. Not because of their defense, but because they still play with a partially dirt field, which may literally slow KC down. I’ve heard they’re even leaving the pitcher’s mound and some of the bases in on Sunday. Every little bit helps; but it likely still won’t be enough.

Chiefs 31-20




Chicago @ Denver
Looking at Joe Flacco’s stats from the Broncos Week 1 loss could fool one into thinking he had an average outing. I, however, watched (a good amount of) the game and I can tell you that Flacco was well below average. Even worse, he was totally non-threatening. Well, except for that one series where he brought a knife on the field. But that threat wasn’t exactly football-related. Fortunately for Denver, they’re going up against a quarterback who had an even more tepid 2019 debut. To his credit, Mitchell Trubisky did throw a pass that was caught in the end zone. The refs ruled that it didn’t count for points however, because it was caught by a Packer. So which QB will get nearest to mediocrity this Sunday? Hard to say, but I can’t imagine Flacco having any chance against this Bears D, with or without the knife. 

Bears 16-9




New Orleans @ Los Angeles Rams
I’ll consider it a surprise if Sean Payton doesn't challenge for pass interference on the first throw of the game. Strangely it will be a 75 yard Saints touchdown, but this man has principles damn it. Sure, the TD will get overturned, and the Saints will go on to lose by 4, but Payton will have proved his point! And yes, this loss will trigger a downward spiral that results in the Saints missing the playoffs, Drew Brees retiring, and Payton getting fired, but the world will known that he meant business. And certainly, losing his job will send Payton into a deep depression that will ruin his marriage and he’ll one day die alone because of a pass interference challenge. But I’m sure that when he gets to the pearly gates he’ll tell St. Peter that he doesn’t regret it one bit. St. Peter will then cast him down to hell for his stubbornness, but at least Sean Payton will be able to look himself in the mirror. Of course, there are no mirrors in hell, but you get what I mean. 

Rams 31-27




Sunday Night

Philadelphia @ Atlanta
 The Falcons looked like straight up garbanzo beans last week in Minnesota. Now they come home in need of a win against a tough Eagles squad. Which bird will fly the highest this Sunday? Why ask me when you can turn to ol' CriColl himself:
That seems a bit biased Cris. I'm going to stray from convention and disagree with you, likely to my own detriment.

Eagles 26-23 




Monday Night

Cleveland @ New York Jets
Both of these would-be upstarts had disappointing openers last week, with the Browns getting creamed in Cleveland (possible title for a much racier, long overdue, Sleepless in Seattle sequel), and the Jets treating their home fans to a blown 16 point lead. Now an 0-2 start looms for one team, as does a reaffirmation for that fan base that God does exist, and s/he hates their football team. But who does the lord despise most? Tune in this Monday to find out! And don’t be surprised if there’s a lightning delay. 

Browns 24-10


9.12.2019

NFL Picks - Week 2 Thursday

 
 
Tampa Bay @ Carolina
We’re kicking off Fox’s Thursday Night Football lineup with a bang. And that bang is all of our heads hitting the coffee table when we fall asleep midway through the 2nd quarter. One intriguing element to keep an eye on will be whether or not Jameis Winston can throw more touchdowns to Buccaneers than the opposition. He’s currently behind 1 to 2 in that category, and it’s safe to say that ratio will need to improve for Tampa to win any games, or for Winston to keep his job. While Cam Newton didn’t have quite as abysmal a performance in his opener, he definitely looked shabby. The same cannot be said for Cam postgame though, because his press conference outfit was simply fantastic. Normally I make fun of Newton’s ridiculous fashion, but this time I can’t. How could I? A short-sleeved sports coat, a barbed-wire hat, and a scarf that an old woman would wear while riding in a convertible is an unimpeachable ensemble. He just looks really good! And not at all like if Thelma and Louise’s road trip had occurred in the Mad Max universe. The man inspires confidence, and that’s why I’m picking Carolina.

Panthers 24-13

9.06.2019

NFL Picks - Week 1

Sunday Morning

Tennessee @ Cleveland
There’s a buzz in Cleveland, and I’m not talking about the city’s perpetually drunk population. Don’t worry, I’m sure they’re still there, but I’m specifically referring to the town’s football team. Many are projecting the Browns to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Lofty expectations and a town accustomed to disappointment are a dangerous cocktail. But I say drink it down Cleveland, it’s a good way to keep that buzz going!

Browns 27-17




Baltimore @ Miami
As we saw in the latter half of the 2018 season, and from everything we’ve heard prior to the start of 2019, the Ravens are dedicated to running the football. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have made it clear going into the season that they are dedicated to losing football games. That bodes well for Baltimore in this match-up. Look for the Ravens to win, and both teams to go home happy.

Ravens 26-10



Atlanta @ Minnesota 
It’s a make of break season for each of these teams. And I’m not kidding. I’ve heard from a reliable source that if these teams don’t make deep playoff runs the franchises will be permanently disbanded. It seems harsh, but sometimes that’s what gets results. Fortunately for these squads I think both are capable of playing into January. Unfortunately for one them, somebody’s gotta lose in Week 1. I’m guessing it will be the visitors by a slim margin. They shouldn’t get too down on themselves though, Minnesota is a tough place to play, and it’s just one loss ... one loss that could trigger a downward spiral leading to the complete dissolution of their franchise. But keep your head up Falcons!

Vikings 24-20



Buffalo @ New York Jets
The Jets have hired Hines Ward as an offensive assistant. So far the exact details of his job description are scant, but I have a good idea of what he’ll be teaching his new team. Pick plays? Check. Blindside blocks? You bet ya. Smiling broadly like a real prick to get under the opponent’s skin and drive me insane! Yes, he’ll also be teaching them that. As such, look for a lot of fights and unsportsmanlike conduct penalties in this game while a proud Hines Ward looks on from the sidelines grinning through it all.

Jets 19-13



Washington @ Philadelphia 
DeSean Jackson is playing against his former team. But also DeSean Jackson is playing for his former team. It’s such a confusing dynamic that if I were Jackson I’d try to use it to my advantage. Maybe line up at DB to see if Case Keenum gets confused and throws him the ball. Then again, Keenum and Jackson never played together in Washington, so that wouldn’t make a ton of sense. But then again again, it’s Case Keenum, so throwing the ball to the other team doesn’t necessarily require a caveat. 

Eagles 23-9



Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina
How does a team rebound after scoring only 3 points in a Super Bowl? Well let me check the history books... Hold on, still checking ... Ok, I’m in the 80s now, still no point of reference ... aaaand I found it, the one other team in Super Bowl history to only manage 3 points was the ‘71 Dolphins. The next season they became the only undefeated team in the history of the NFL. Holy shit! That’s great news Rams fans! After that realization I’d have to say anything less than 16-0 will be unsatisfactory. Maybe not as upsetting as being so publicly reviled that you can’t even pay someone over a thousand dollars to switch plane seats, but still bothersome. 

Rams 22-16



Kansas City @ Jacksonville 
What an intriguing match-up here. The Chiefs and their top offense from a year ago travel to Jacksonville to take on a Jags defense that has finished in the top 5 in points allowed in consecutive seasons (and by top 5 I mean top 5 fewest, but that sounds confusing ... you get it right? Right?!?). You’ve also got the reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes against a former Super Bowl MVP, Nick Foles. These are also great food cities. Of course Kansas City brings their BBQ to the table, while Jacksonville is known the world over for their famous gator biscuits. So who will prevail? Normally a great defense beats a great offense, so advantage Jags. And we all know that nothing ever beats a gator biscuit. Advantage Jags, again. Still, I’m just not ready to pull the trigger on this upset, mostly because I’m now remembering that Jacksonville was awful last season. In fact, the Jags are a lot like a gator biscuit: when they’re good they’re hard to beat, but when they’re bad the whole city has to vomit. With all that in mind I’ll take the Chiefs in a close one.

Chiefs 24-21



Sunday Afternoon

Indianapolis @ Los Angeles Chargers
Over the past couple seasons the Chargers' temporary home (now named Dignity Health Sports Park) has become notorious for being populated by a raucous majority of visiting fans. While this Sunday’s crowd may feature a large contingent from Indianapolis I have a sneaking suspicion that they won’t be so raucous. Having your franchise quarterback disappear into thin air will do that to a fan base. As a result, I expect the vibe in Carson to be something akin to an energy vacuum. I don’t know if energy vacuums actually exist, but one will on Sunday. Also, I’d just like to point out the irony of the name of the Chargers’ stadium now involving the words “Dignity” and “Health” two things that this franchise is hardly known for. May they be blessed with at least one of the two on Sunday.

Chargers 27-13 



Cincinnati @ Seattle 
The Bengals are one of only two teams in the NFL that Russell Wilson has not defeated. Of course, because these teams are in different conferences it means they only meet once every 4 years, so Wilson has only had one crack at Cincy, a 27-24 overtime loss in 2015. After the game Wilson said (and I quote), “I will have my vengeance. I don’t care if it takes me 1,428 days, the Bengals will be conquered by my hand.” Amazing that Russell correctly predicted the exact amount of time between games, especially while caught up in the emotions of a hard-fought loss, but I guess the guy is just that good. Look for Wilson to get the monkey off his back and finally be free to move on with his career. 

Seahawks 26-16



New York Giants @ Dallas 
The Cowboys shouldn’t have been surprised that Ezekiel Elliott wanted a bigger contract, he’s been asking for more after ever big run from day one. People thought it was just a fun little celebration. No, it was a constant contract negotiation, he was literally saying “Feed me more money.” Now, as for why he wants to eat the money, I don’t know. Currency is notoriously filthy, and ingesting the stuff renders it useless. So while his financial planning may be questionable, his tactics are to be admired. I wouldn’t be surprised if a player in the near future were to have a big first half and then hold out at halftime for more money before agreeing to play in the 2nd half. It worked for The Ultimate Warrior at SummerSlam ‘91. Of course, he was fired immediately after the show, so maybe it’s not the best idea. But the in-game celebration negotiation is still valid.

Cowboys 31-14 



Detroit @ Arizona 
Remember in 2013 when Chip Kelly debuted as the Eagles coach and Philly ambushed Washington in the opener? They scored like 56 points (hmm, I looked it up and it was only 33, that’s a let down) and put the entire league on notice: the offensive revolution from the college ranks had come to the NFL! Of course, The Eagles proceeded to lose their next three games and Kelly was out in Philly after three seasons with only one playoff appearance. I bring this up because the Cardinals have turned over their organization to a college coach with an extreme offensive approach who employed that game plan to much less success than Kelly did before moving to the pros. So will new Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury continue to follow Kelly’s career trajectory, albeit at a less-pronounced arc? You’ll know when the Cardinals shock the world and put up 50+ on Detroit. Or they’ll look completely lost and fall flat on their face. I’ll aim for somewhere in the middle. 

Cardinals 24-19



San Francisco @ Tampa Bay
Bruce Arians is back to haunt the NFC West once again. No he’s not coaching in the division this time, but the Bucs do have all of Arians’ former rivals on the schedule this year. He’s the red-faced ghost of season's past. First on the docket is a Niners team that is now helmed by Jimmy G, and it’s officially his time to shine. Sure we all said the same thing last season, but Garrapolo’s knee had other ideas. Though have we considered that maybe Garoppolo’s place isn’t on the field? Maybe he’s meant to stand on the sidelines without a helmet. After all, some faces are not meant to be masked. 

Buccaneers 21-20



Sunday Night

Pittsburgh @ New England
We've seen this match-up at least once a season for the past 28 years (sic), so I'm not necessarily thrilled by the prospects of watching it again. Of course I'll be tuning in, but just so I can listen to the best in the biz Cris Collinsworth. Let's get his insight on the game now:

Wow, he actually made a pick. I have no choice but to agree.

Patriots 27-20



Monday Night

Houston @ New Orleans
Hooo doggy, it’s a sweltering Monday night down in Nawlins, and dat don’t bode well for dem Texans! You doan juss geaux down dere and get a Week 1 win ... Sorry, I just fainted into a bowl of gumbo. When I woke up those first two sentences had already been typed out. I don't know how. It’s close enough to making sense, and I’m starved for content, so I’m going to keep it in. That being said, I must humbly disagree with my unconscious Cajun mind. It’s not as difficult as one might think to win a Week 1 game in the Super Dome. In fact, the Saints have gone 1-3 in their last four opening week home contests with losses to the Bucs, the Raiders, and Washington. What’s more, New Orleans is also 1-7 in their last eight openers regardless of location. That’s too much data to be just a coincidence. And clearly their opponent, the Texans, have everything figured out ... Regardless, I’m following the trend.

Texans 28-25



Denver @ Oakland 
If you watched this season of Hard Knocks you probably witnessed, and were unimpressed by, Jon Gruden counting backwards from 100 by 3. It was hard to fathom why Gruden considered this an interesting trick, or even a trick at all. But it was a fascinating insight into the mind of a man that is making $10m a year. Come to think of it though, using the aforementioned counting method could actually be useful in helping Gruden figure out how many years it will take him to get to 100 wins in his second Raiders stint.

Broncos 17-13 

9.05.2019

NFL Picks - Week 1 Thursday

Green Bay @ Chicago

Let the celebration begin, the 100th season of the NFL has arrived! Yes, the league we all hold so dear has come a long way since that inaugural 1920 contest in Dayton, Ohio. But few know just how humble the NFL’s beginnings truly were. In fact, the first game was actually just a boxing match between Colin “The Foreigner” O’Leary and Two Fists Thompson in which a misshapen medicine ball somehow wound up in the ring. O’Leary picked up the ball only to be knocked out by one of Thompson’s two fists. When Thompson left the ring with the ball he was declared the league champion and the first ever MVP. The sport has evolved quite a bit since then, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Don’t be surprised, however, if Khalil Mack employs a Two Fist style strategy when dealing with Aaron Rodgers. The Bears temporarily knocked the Packers’ QB out of the opener last season, but Rodgers got off the mat just in time to steal the win for Green Bay. Will Chicago keep him down for the count this year? Time will tell. Perhaps on the eve of NFL 200 future generations will be reading about the results of this contest marveling at how the game used to be played by actual humans and that NFL didn’t always stand for National Frognol Legion.

Bears 22-20