Finally, The Mock has come back to H....C....M

Just over 4 hours now until the 2013 NFL Draft is underway.  What better time than now to unveil my first and only Mock Draft?

Well, here it is:

1.       Kansas City Chiefs – Eric Fisher, T, Central Michigan

2.       Jacksonville Jaguars – Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon

3.       Oakland Raiders – Luke Joeckel, T, Texas A&M (I think they could trade this pick away to someone looking to come up and get Joeckel before the Eagles)

4.       Philadelphia Eagles – Lane Johnson, T, Oklahoma

5.       Detroit Lions – Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

6.       Cleveland Browns – Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU

7.       Arizona Cardinals – Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

8.       Buffalo Bills – Jonathan Cooper, G, UNC

9.       New York Jets – Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

10.   Tennessee Titans – Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

11.   San Diego Chargers – Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

12.   Miami Dolphins – DJ Fluker, T, Alabama (this would change if the trade for Albert goes through)

13.   New York Jets – Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama (could fall further because of medical issues)

14.   Carolina Panthers – Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

15.   New Orleans Saints – Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

16.   St. Louis Rams – Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

17.   Pittsburgh Steelers – Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia

18.   Dallas Cowboys – Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC

19.   New York Giants – Xavier Rhodes, CB, FSU

20.   Chicago Bears – Tyler Eiffert, TE, Notre Dame

21.   Cincinnati Bengals – Matt Elam, S, Florida

22.   St. Louis Rams – Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee

23.   Minnesota Vikings – Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame

24.   Indianapolis Colts – DJ Hayden, CB, Houston

25.   Minnesota Vikings – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

26.   Green Bay Packers – Justin Pugh, T, Syracuse

27.   Houston Texans – DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson

28.   Denver Broncos – Tank Carradine, DE, FSU

29.   New England Patriots – Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

30.   Atlanta Falcons – Bjoern Werner, DE, FSU

31.   San Francisco 49ers – Datone Jones, DE/DT, UCLA

32.   Baltimore Ravens – Eric Reid, S, LSU.

New Draft Eve

We are just over 24 hours away from the start of the 2013 NFL Draft.  And this draft seems like it has more uncertainty at the top than any in recent memory.  The first pick still hasn't been locked down and although most people think it will be Luke Joeckel there's a chance the Chiefs will look elsewhere.  This uncertainty is probably a result of no player really standing out as the elite player at their position.  There is debate about almost every position.  So even though the Seahawks don't have a first round pick, I think there are plenty of interesting storylines.  There are a few topics in particular that interest me.

Are any of these QBs any good?
It seems like people are talking themselves into all of the QB prospects.  Geno Smith has talent, but he would have clearly been the #4 prospect in last year's draft (and #5 in a redraft).  There's talk of Ryan Nassib going #8 to Buffalo because his old coach is there.  I would say this is a huge mistake, but Miami did a similar thing last year with Tannehill and it worked (thought it would be a terrible move at the time).  I just don't see any of these guys being the franchise QB like Russell Wilson or even at the level of an Andrew Luck or a Robert Griffith III.

Does Manti Te'o get fooled by mock drafts?
I would really like this questioned answered.  Do you think he sees Kiper's mock and then runs out of his room shouting to his family about how he just got drafted by the Vikings?  And then the next day reads McShay's and wonders why the Bears were now able to draft him?  This poor guy might have been very confused over the past month.

Three intriguing question marks
I'm very interested to see where the following three players are drafted: DJ Hayden (CB, Houston), Tyrann Mathieu (CB, LSU) and Marcus Lattimore (RB, South Carolina).

Hayden is back to being considered a Round 1 CB after having a freak, life-threatening injury in practice.  Back in November he had a major blood vessel tear in his chest.  The injury is usually seen in car crash victims and it has an over 95% fatality rate.  He has a clean bill of health and ran a great 40 at his pro day (some report 4.4 some say 4.3).  Mayock saw enough to put him back as his #1 CB based on the tape and his improved health.  Still, he hasn't been in pads and on the field since that injury.  He might have the skills, but there's no way of telling if this kid is really ready to go out and starting hitting people again.  Not sure how the fact that he almost died wouldn't be in the back of his mind every time he goes in to make a tackle.  But, if a team is convinced it's not an issue than he will likely go in the Top 20.

Tyrann Mathieu's story is probably better-known because of his high-profile troubles at LSU.  He looks to still be in good shape after a year off, but there's bound to be some rust.  He was never the best cover corner and nothing has changed there.  He probably wouldn't have been a first rounder even if he had played.  But, the guy is clearly a playmaker.  He can help in the return game and his ability to cause turnovers, specifically forcing fumbles, is enough to keep in the late-2nd to early-3rd discussion.  My biggest concern with him is that, by sitting out a year, his nickname has become severely dated.  Nobody gives a shit about the Honey Badger video anymore, so keeping that nickname would be stupid.  He needs to adopt a new nickname to convey his reckless play such as Wheat Thins Puppet or Cunt Punter (hope you guys have read the sorority girl rant letter or watched the Michael Shannon reading of it).

Before Kevin Ware got a leg up on him, Marcus Lattimore was owned the title of "Most Gruesomely Injured Collegiate Athlete of 2012-13."  Lattimore suffered an awful knee injury that ended his season (also tore his ACL in 2011).  When healthy, Lattimore was one of the more effective backs in the nation and he was doing it against top-notch SEC defenses.  By all accounts he will not be able to contribute significantly in 2013.  With that in mind, it will be interesting to see who takes him based on the hope that he can regain his form (or even come back better like Adrian Peterson).  My fear is that the 49ers, who have roughly 43 picks in this year's draft, will spend one on him in the late 3rd round (it would be there 5th pick already).  They don't have too many holes to fill on their roster, so they can take a chance on him and place him on IR for a year.  Gore is winding down his career (hopefully) and they can start grooming Lattimore to replace him.  My hope is that this will jinx it and make this scenario not happen.  

Check back later tonight or, more likely, early tomorrow morning for the official HCM 2013 Mock Draft.  And remember to follow the site and Twitter tomorrow for all the breaking news and rumors.

"Mock" Draft

Let me start by apologizing to all the Mustacheers who rely on the site for all draft-related news and content.  The coverage has been a bit sparse this year if not non-existent.  Some say the lack of coverage this year is due to the fact that the "blue-chip" prospects are really boring.  Others say it's due to the fact that the Seahawks don't have a first round pick.  While other, better-informed sources claim it's because I forgot my login and password.  Whatever the reason, the 2013 NFL Draft is only three weeks away and it's time to get the HCM boards a buzzin.  And don't forget that I'm the draft genius that just last year in the draft day running commentary gave such great insights as, and I quote, "I like it. Wagner looks good (maybe)" and "I like Russell Wilson".  I think that solidifies my rep.  Around this time I usually debut my mock draft, but this year I'm going to give you all a draft mock.  This is where I pick apart that talking head Mel Kiper's latest projection.

Here are that joker's picks with some Vintage Pete goofs:

1.       KC – Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

What a lazy pick.  Do your research.

2.       Jax – Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

Raw DE prospects seem to be more popular these days than raw fish (aka sashimi).  Have you heard about these places?  They sell you raw fish and other uncooked stuff from the ocean.  Who are the ad wizards who came up with this one?  “Let’s trick people into eating uncooked food and we won’t even have to pay for an oven or grill.  Say it’s from a different country and we can charge more.”  Apparently they’re popular lunch spots for high-powered CEOs after their mid-morning felatio.  I bet Kiper goes to sushi restaurants and orders California rolls.  What a clown.

3.       Oak – Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

Not positive, but I think you goofed Mel and mocked a basketball prospect in your NFL draft.  Probably will fix it in version 3.0.

4.       Phi – Geno Smith, QB, West Va

Do you even try anymore Mel?  “Oh, Chip Kelly likes to run a quick offense, so let’s mock a guy who I think is probably an athletic QB.” It’s the 21^st (?) Century Mel.  Wake up.

5.       Det – Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

OK, this one’s solid.

6.       Cle – Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon

According to Mel, “Really like this fit.”  That’s the sort of thing I say when I try on a pair of Hanes boxer briefs.  Gotta try better if you’re getting paid for this Melly.

7.       Ari – Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

Two things: one, Mayock likes Fisher more than Joeckel so you screwed up; two, you say keeping Palmer upright is the priority.  I couldn’t disagree more.  Palmer is not a long-term solution, so don’t worry about building an offense to support him.  If you think Fisher is the best player available then take him, but don’t take players to make Palmer better.  He’s there for a max 2 years.  Arizona is picking in the top 15 next year too, so take guys that you can build around.

8.       Buf – Jonathan Cooper, G, UNC

WHAT?!?  Most mock drafts this year when the first guard is taken justify it with something along the lines of “guards don’t go in the Top 10, but Chance Warmack is a special talent.”  The problem here though is that Kipey has mocked the 2^nd best guard at #8.  If you’re just being an idiot Mel you might as well mock Barkevious Mingo to the Jets at #9.

9.       NYJ – Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

Idiot

10.   Ten – Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

Titans must be pissed they missed out on Jonathan Cooper.

11.   SD – Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

If I were a GM I would never draft a guy named Lane.

12.   Mia – DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama

Mel, I think you screwed up here.  You list him as an OT, but based on his name he is clearly a WR.

13.   TB – Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

So you say he is cleared medically.  That was the only red flag about the guy.  He dropped from #1 consideration down to mid-round when heart scares came up.  If those are gone, why is he the second DT off the board?

14.   Car – Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

Too easy

15.   NO – Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

If you need me to tell you why this makes no sense then just stop reading.

16.   STL – Tavon Austin, WR, West Va

“The loss of Amendola leaves a void, but could even be an upgrade.”  This is a ridiculous statement.  If you don’t think you’re getting a player better than Danny Amendola at 16, then you need to select a different player.  Why do people think this little shithead Amendola is some great receiver?  He sucks.  He sucks the big one.

17.   Pit – Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

Another quote from Kipes: “Can’t effectively be covered by anybody.” Wow.  That’s odd though because I don’t remember him catching 200 passes this year.  Oh, what’s that?  He only caught 50 passes in 2012?  And never more than 6 in one game?  Interesting.

18.   Dal – Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC

Ha, maybe as a goof.

19.   NYG – Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

Is it just me or did he never look all that good at UW?

20.   Chi – Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame

If anyone had his cell number you’re basically obligated to call and pretend to be a GM saying you’re going to draft him, right?

21.   Cin – Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

Ugh, really?

22.   STL – Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

Cool pick Rams.  It’s a shame he’ll never be the best Safety from Texas in the NFC West ever in his career.

23.   Min – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tenn

Gotta handd it to Mell.  This is a goodd onne, butt I fear that this player hass too many doubble consonants in his namme to be truly successfull.

24.   Ind – Xavier Rhodes, CB, FSU

Not bad I guess since they can’t really draft a new health problem for a beloved member of the staff to rally around.

25.   Min – Kevin Minter, LB, LSU

This guy will definitely impact a game less than Percy Harvin.  Not so much a knock on Kiper as it is a chance to be happy about getting Harvin.

26.   GB – Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

A running back to the Packers?  Do you even watch football bro?  The Packers don’t run the ball.  Waste of a pick.

27.   Hou – Robert Woods, WR, USC

Hahahahaha.  Nope.

28.   Den – DJ Hayden, CB, Houston

You made a big mistake here Mello Yello.  This is the second “DJ” you have going in the first round.  You expect me to believe that there will be more DJs selected than Steves or Barkeviouses combined??

29.   NE – Justin Hunter, WR, Ten

Yes, yes.  Nailed it.

30.   Atl – Kyle Long, OL, Oregon

This gutless worm Kiper can’t even tell us if the guy will play G or T.  Take a stand you pussy.  Quit hiding behind your hair.

31.   SF – Margus Hunt, DE, SMU

This guy’s nickname is the Eastern Block because he’s from Estonia and he had like 15 blocked kicks in his career.  Kinda cool?

32.   Bal – Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida Intl

Way to finish strong dumbshit

Second Round Notes

·         Matt Barkley to the Jags at #33.  This isn’t so much a mock of Kiper, but a warning to any good Junior quarterbacks playing at USC.  DO NOT COME BACK FOR YOUR SENIOR SEASON.

·         Kawann Short, DT, Purdue to Minnesota at #52.  I like this guy and would love to take him at #56 if he’s there.

·         Speaking of #56, he has the Hawks going with Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St.  Says he only drops this far due to depth at the position in this year’s draft. 

NFL Picks - Super Bowl XLVII

Baltimore vs. San Francisco

After a long season of middling to above average success at predicting the results of NFL games, I felt I'd be doing a disservice to all(?) of my loyal(?) reader(s) by not breaking down the Super Bowl. Also, my pick has national implications that are a bit hard to explain, but let's just say I owe it to America to give it my best effort for one more week. So let's get started, or more importantly, get this over with.

In recent years a lot has been made of the increased parity in the NFL. Personally I keep hoping that the last few weeks turn out to be a parody, like one of those fake endings to a Wayne's World movies; we'll find out it was just a goof, rewind a few weeks and get back to reality. Just in case that scenario doesn't come to fruition I decided to take a closer look at this parity deal. Here's a few things that stood out:

The 49ers have had what most would consider a good season, compiling 11 victories, including blowout wins of 34 and 42 points that would suggest that parity is a myth. However, they were also beat down by 23 at home and crushed, I mean just absolutely dominated, by 29 late in the season (video of said domination can be seen here). Meanwhile, the Ravens ran the gamut of win/loss margins to the tune of 35 and 30, respectively. So, as you can see, with such parity even the "best" teams can be beaten badly. If you ask me, a great team should never lose a game by more than seven points, but that's neither here nor there.

Parity has reared its ugly, socialist head in the Super Bowl particularly. Over the last nine years (XXXVIII - XLVI) the average margin of victory for the Super Bowl winner has been under a touchdown (6.7 points per game). In the nine preceding Super Bowls (XXIX - XXXVII) that margin was over two touchdowns (14.8 ppg). And if we want to look even nine years further back than that, Super Bowls XX - XXVIII were decided on average by over three touchdowns (22.4 ppg). So as you can see, the league's championship game is getting closer by a touchdown every decade, more or less. Clearly we're headed towards a nine year stretch in which the average margin of victory will be zero. That's right Donovan McNabb, nothing but ties!

Here's one last factoid in support of the parity argument: this is the only Super Bowl to be played following a full 16 game season in which neither of the teams has at least 12 wins.

So I suppose it's time to make my pick. I've thought long and hard about this (because, like I said before, it has national implications) and one score keeps flashing in my mind like a florescent Dirk Diggler sign, and that score is 27-20. As I explained earlier, the average point differential in the last nine Super Bowls is just about 7 points, furthermore, the average score is 26-19. So I figured I'd just normalize those scores a bit and trust mathematics, because I no longer have the capacity for emotion. So who's winning?

49ers 27-20

Pretty lame huh? What won't be lame is when the Seahawks ruin San Francisco's first night as defending champs on Thursday, September 5th. There ya go, that's like a three-tiered prediction, that should last you for the next seven months you vultures.

NFL Picks - Conference Championships

NFC

San Francisco @ Atlanta

Fuck this.      Suggested alternate viewing.

49ers 35-24


AFC

Baltimore @ New England

Don't care.     Suggested alternate viewing.

Patriots 27-24

NFL Picks - Divisional Round

Saturday

Baltimore @ Denver

Peyton Manning is back in the playoffs, look out NFL! Or don't. Three of the last four times Manning has been in the playoffs he's lost his first game, with two of those losses coming at home. So perhaps the rest of the league shouldn't look out, they should look in. The secret to conquering Peyton can only be found within oneself. However, if the Ravens don't have time for self reflection they can just heed this advice: make him throw lots of interceptions. Like at least five, ten plus if possible. If that's not possible then Baltimore could struggle. The Ravens D looked strong last week against Indianapolis, but the Colts and the Broncos are completely different animals. Well, not really, they're both horses. But I think you get my point, and that point is that colts and broncos are actually two very similar animals while the Colts and Broncos are not. You're following this right? I think Denver will have enough firepower to handle Baltimore, even if it doesn't turn out to be as lopsided as when these teams met in Week 15.

Broncos 27-17


Green Bay @ San Francisco

It's a rematch of Week 1 when the 49ers prevailed in Green Bay. A lot has changed since then. For instance, I started using an exercise ball for all of my sitting situations and my core has responded in kind. But enough about my newly shredded physique and improved balance, these teams have come a long way too. The Packers have dealt with injuries all year but are finally rounding into form, much like their coach who rounded into form years ago and has stayed round ever since. Meanwhile, the Niners have a new starting quarterback who hasn't let the luster of his new spot on the depth chart give him a big head; I mean just look at that thing, his hat size is probably 6 & 1/4. But for however many ups and downs these squads may have gone through this season they find themselves right back where they started. I see this one being closer than their first meeting, in fact, it will be closer than any playoff game ever, or at least tie for that honor.

49ers 24-23


Sunday

Seattle @ Atlanta

Matt Ryan has had a solid career so far. In his five seasons the Falcons have amassed a 56-24 record while he's thrown for nearly 19,000 yards and 127 touchdowns. There's no debating that those are solid numbers. Still, Russell Wilson has one more playoff win than he does. Ryan and the rest of the Falcons will have the weight of their past playoff failures on their shoulders Sunday, meaning that the Hawks won't need Chris Clemons to put pressure on the QB, the city of Atlanta will already be doing that. The loss of Clemons thrusts Bruce Irvin into the spotlight, which is fine because a spotlight and a searchlight are very similar, and the rookie pass rusher has some experience with the latter. A big performance from Irvin would be a bonus for the Seahawks, but the real key to the game, is their backfields, both offensive and defensive. A shutdown performance from the secondary coupled with a stampede from Russell and the Beast will propel the Hawks.

Seahawks 28-20


Houston @ New England

The Texans have become very bland. At this point everybody would appreciate it if they just left quietly, which I'm guessing is the same way everybody whose ever hung out with Matt Schaub feels. Seriously, look at this dork. It's an interesting juxtaposition with Tom Brady as his counterpart in this contest, because, as well know, Brady is the coolest guy ever. It's well documented (in several books) that the Patriots crushed the Texans 42-14 in Week 14. I expect Houston to put up a better effort in this one, I mean, with this guy rallying the troops how could they not lay it all on the line? However, even a much better effort still wouldn't be enough.

Patriots 31-21

NFL Picks - Wild Card Round

Saturday

Cincinnati @ Houston

It's the rematch America deserves, but not the one that it needs right now. So we'll watch it, because it's a playoff game, not a great game; that's why it's been relegated to the shadows of Saturday afternoon, because if this were given the primetime kickoff that would surely be a dark night (when I saw this match-up it was just screaming for a Batman reference). But seriously, this is a rematch that no one asked for. In last year's Wild Card round the Texans creamed the Bengals 31-10 with T.J. Yates at the helm. Perhaps Yates should get the start this year as well, seeing as how Matt Schaub's performance has been uninspiring for the past month (and normally Schaub inspires me to no end). Opposing defenses stumped the Schaub for most of December, as he was only able to amass one touchdown pass in the last four games. And now he heads into his first career playoff start to face an above average Cincinnati pass defense. So to be clear I have serious concerns about the Texans' offense. But I'm not crazy about the Bengals' O either. They've won seven of their last eight, but I feel like the home field advantage will help key the Texans' defense, and their effort will be the difference.

Texans 19-16


Minnesota @ Green Bay

It's the rematch America wants to see! Can the Packers respond after falling one week ago to the Vikings who were led by Adrian Peterson's virtuoso performance (not only at running back, he performed during the halftime show and cooked the postgame meal as well)? The move from the HHH MetroDome to Lambeau Field will definitely work in Green Bay's favor; the Vikings are normally protected from the elements by a roof that only occasionally collapses. I'm expecting the wind chill to make temperatures in the low teens come kickoff; I have no basis for this belief, nor have I done any research into the matter, it's just what I expect. I suppose finding out the truth would be as easy as going to weather.com and simply looking at the forecast for Green Bay, Wi at 5:30pm (Pacific, 7:30 local time) and finding the temperature; in fact, just typing this hypothetical has probably taken me longer than it would to actually do what I'm describing ... fine I'll do it! Aright, it looks like 21 degrees, so I'll probably be just about right. Good, I'm glad we got this figured out. So, to recap, the Packers are at home, and a better team, and it will be cold, so I think they'll win.

Packers 31-20


Sunday

Indianapolis @ Baltimore

Well it's January and Joe "Flac Man" Flacco is playing football, what else is new? Homeboy has made the playoffs every season he's been in the league, and what's more, he's had at least one win in every postseason. Say what you will about Flac Man (I can't believe you just said that about Flac Man!), but that's pretty impressive. Now the Ravens have an added edge with Ray Lewis's announcement that he will retire at the end of the season. You can bet that the rest of that defense will want to give him at least one more opportunity to put on the pads, unless they all secretly hate him and now they've finally been presented with a chance to end his career. If you think that's the case then bet heavily on the Colts. I, however, believe there's only about a 20% chance that that's true, so I'll go with Baltimore. Don't let me down Flac Man.

Ravens 27-22


Seattle @ Washington

Here. We. Go. A lot has been made about the similarities between these teams, but let's focus on a big difference instead. All you need to know is that the Seahawks have the 12th man, and with their crowd making noi ... what's that? It's a road game!? That's just not fair; teams with a worse record should NEVER get the home field advantage in a playoff game. Well, that will make things a bit tougher for the Hawks, of whose road struggles much has been made. But a 3-5 mark away from home isn't catastrophic, and the Redskins' 5-3 home mark is hardly dominant. Besides, in the Hawks' first four road games RussellMania was not yet running wild on the NFL. The last two times Washington has been in the playoffs ('05 & '07) they've been eliminated by the Seahawks, and I can't think of one variable that would make the result any different Sunday. Oh shit, that's right, they're on the road, I keep forgetting. While that is an important variable, the Hawks have the ultimate variable, and his name is Russell Wilson.

Seahawks 21-17