Sunday Morning
Cincinnati @ Atlanta
It’s
Week 4, so you know what that means ... Bye weeks are back! I’m a huge
fan of bye weeks; such a fan that I might even take one myself this
season (“might” meaning I definitely will). Byes allow me to utilize the
amount of focus I’d normally allot to 16 games and apply it to (in this
week’s case) 15 games. That’s an extra 6.25% of focus to spread across
the rest of the schedule. In other words, buckle your seatbelt baby!
It’s time to unleash a little bit of that 6.25. Here we go ... Bengals
and Falcons ... Uhh ... Let’s see ... Well, they have a common opponent
this season in the Panthers. Cincy lost to them by 10 in Carolina, while
the Falcons beat them by 7 in Atlanta. So this should be a 17 point win
for the Falcons. Or is this like the house-painting equation where you
have to divide the sum by the difference? Hmm, yeah that sounds better.
Ok, off to a bad start, I promise I’ll put that 6.25% to better use on
the rest of these.
Falcons 30-24
Tampa Bay @ Chicago
Alright,
it’s time for the weekly Ryan Fitzpatrick MVP status check: is Ryan
Fitzpatrick still the NFL MVP? Not quite. He’s probably in the top five,
but after throwing three interceptions in his team’s first loss of the
season on Monday, FitzMagic regressed towards FitzSurprising. Even with
his costly mistakes he still managed to throw for over 400 yards and
continued to make a clear and obvious statement that he should remain
Tampa’s starting quarterback regardless of whether or not Jameis Winston
is available. Case in point, in my MVP rankings Winston is currently
third from last, just ahead of Nathan Peterman and Clay Matthews. The
Bears are 2-1 on the strength of their defense ensuring that Mitchell
Trubisky doesn’t have to do much. Chicago’s offense has put up 16, 17,
and 16 points in their three games this season. They’ll most likely need
more against Tampa’s bafflingly high-powered offensive attack. Is that
possible? Remains to be seen. If I knew that score-picking biz would be a lot easier.
Bears 27-23
Detroit @ Dallas
Going
into the season it seemed clear to pundits and fans alike that the
Cowboys had a glaring positional weakness at wide receiver. That became
all the more obvious last Sunday when Dak Prescott did not attempt a
pass more than 15 yards downfield. Suffice it to say, Dallas needs
someone to get open. Either that or they could keep running a boring
offense because they don’t have a choice and the rest of us can revel in
their ineptitude. Actually, I like that option better, keep doing what
you’re doing Boys!
Cowboys 20-17
Buffalo @ Green Bay
Last
week I marveled at the Packers being undefeated while only outscoring
their opponents by 1 point on the season. Well now we’re three games
into the season and they’ve managed to go .500, a rare feat that was
somehow accomplished by FOUR teams this season. Whatever dark overlord
controls these NFL season simulations clearly got bored this year and is
trying out some new stuff. How else would you explain the Bills going
into Minnesota and trouncing the Vikings? Exactly; an apathetic NFL God is
the most logical answer. Those Vikings that Buffalo creamed are the same
squad that Green Bay battled to a stalemate in Week 2. So it stands to
reason that the Bills will waltz into Lambeau and lambast the Packers,
right? If you said yes, then you clearly aren’t familiar with Balthazar
the Simulator.
Packers 34-17
Philadelphia @ Tennessee
The
Titans are somehow 2-1 after beating the Jags 9-6 last week. Those 9
points are the lowest total for a winner this season. Marcus Mariota
came off the bench for Tennessee and piloted them to that win, which
shouldn’t be surprising considering that he’s regularly praised for
being an efficient QB. What’s more efficient than scoring as few points
as possible in securing a win? No wasted effort! The Eagles also did
just enough to win in Week 3, scoring a game-winning touchdown late in
the 4th quarter to top the Colts in Carson Wentz’s return. Just like the
Titans, it wasn’t pretty but it got the job done. That’s probably what
we should expect from this game, a couple of workmanlike efforts; no
frills. It will be the equivalent of eating a Clif Bar. Am I excited to
eat it? No. Does it taste good? Not really. But it has useful calories
damn it! If you want intrigue from your nourishment look elsewhere.
Eagles 17-16
Houston @ Indianapolis
In
my season preview I got carried away and picked the Texans to make the
AFC title game. They are now one of only three winless teams in the
league. I could try to rescind my prediction and edit my original post
to insert a more sensible choice, but unfortunately I just have too damn
much journalistic integrity to do so. Gah, why do I hold myself to such
a high standard?!? Since I’m stuck with Houston they’re going to have
to start improving pronto so that people don’t start thinking I could
possibly be an idiot who should not be considered an authority nor even a
coherent commentator on the subject of the NFL. Now that would be truly
dire. So much so, that I’m afraid to even confront it, let’s move on.
Texans 26-23
Miami @ New England
This
game features one of only three undefeated teams in the NFL.
Surprisingly that team is the Miami Dolphins. As we discussed in this
space a week ago that’s most likely a symptom of a favorable opening
schedule, but hey they’re still beating these trash teams, so they
deserve some credit. The Dolphins are merely taking advantage of the
circumstances presented to them. If that sentence were used to describe a
person from Miami, or any of Florida, it would be concerning, but since we’re talking about
a football team we shouldn’t be too skeeved out. New England fans,
however, should be disgusted by the Patriots’ performance over the last
couple weeks, especially their total stinker on Sunday night in Detroit against a
winless Lions team. Stinkers in Detroit are nothing new, but for the
Pats it’s troubling to say the least. I imagine this game will act as a
collective anomaly correction, tempering both the Dolphins’
expectations, and New England’s consternation.
Patriots 30-20
New York Jets @ Jacksonville
Well
it happened, on Sunday Blake Bortles fell back to earth like so many of
his errant passes. Like I said last week, it
was only a matter of time, I just didn’t think it was going to happen so quickly. But it makes sense, the larger the sample size becomes, the
more likely it is that Bortles will regress to the mean ... and then
keep going right past that to below average. It’s like those videos of a toddler sinking shots on his/her Fisher Price hoop; sure they
made them all in this edited video, but if we kept the camera
rolling all day, I’d be willing to bet that they end up shooting sub 40%
from the field. I’m guessing Bortles will make enough throws/shots into
his plastic hoop to get Jacksonville this win.
Jaguars 23-13
Sunday Afternoon
Cleveland @ Oakland
The
Browns won a game last week. That might seem like a dry, uninspired
sentence, but really just the fact that it’s factual makes it amazing.
It’s the first time anyone’s been able to say that since Week 17 of
2016. And you have to go back another 17 games to find their last
win before that. So the sheer magnitude of its mere occurrence should
not be overlooked. And it certainly wasn’t in Cleveland, where the fans
celebrated as if ... well as if their football team had finally won a
football game for the first time in 21 months. The Browns will have had a
full 10 days to bask in this foreign afterglow when they step on to the
infield/shallow outfield at the Oakland coliseum. Will they be jaded by
their newfound success? Or will they be just as hungry to get another W
and ensure the highest win total for a Browns season since 2015? I think Oakland gets the win, because they're at home, and they need it more.
Raiders 20-15
Seattle @ Arizona
In
their three games thus far the Cardinals have faced the top two scoring
defenses (Rams and Washington) in the NFL (Going into Week 4). Tough luck one might assume,
but I would argue that in such a small sample size those teams have
given up so few points because they faced the Cardinals. Case in point,
those teams have given up an average of 19 points to non-Cardinal opponents,
while surrendering 1.5 per game to Arizona. Of course, the Cardinals
figure to improve offensively for a couple reasons: first off, it would
be hard for them not to, and secondly they decided to move on from Sam
Bradford as their starting quarterback, opting to go with rookie Josh
Rosen for Week 4. Will Rosen be any better? The fact that he isn’t Sam
Bradford suggests that he will be. He’ll need to be careful though,
because he’s facing a Seahawks defense that’s tied for the league lead
with 7 interceptions. I expect Arizona to top a point and a half, but
still not amass enough for a win.
Seahawks 20-10
New Orleans @ New York Giants
Saints
continue to be the most entertaining team in the league. Shootouts,
wild finishes, unpredictability. The Full House theme song scribe would
be disgusted, but I’m loving it. What’s more is, the last time these
teams met in 2015, it resulted in a mind-boggling 52-49 melee that
featured 13 touchdown passes (Ok, they actually played again in 2016,
but the final in that game was 16-13, so let’s just pretend it never
happened). So surely this game will be of the must-watch variety. At
this point though, you could say that about any game involving Eli
Manning, there’s no telling what he might do ... Which of course means
that he’ll now throw 2 TDs and an interception in a ho hum loss, and
you’ll all be pissed at me. But come on, if you’ve been reading for this
long and you’re not already upset is this really what’s going to push
you over the edge?
Saints 28-20
San Francisco @ Los Angeles Chargers
Female
viewership between the ages of 18-49 declined sharply for the 49ers
with just under 6 minutes left in their loss to the Chiefs on Sunday. This
seemed to coincide with Jimmy Garoppolo’s exit from the game due to a
knee injury. Advertisers be advised, those numbers are expected to stay
near that nadir with the confirmation that Garoppolo will indeed miss
the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Though there will be more shots
of him on the sideline without his helmet obscuring his face, so who
knows, maybe this was a blessing in disguise for that aforementioned
demographic. As for San Francisco’s actual on-field product, their
season may has well have been riding shotgun on the medical cart with
Garoppolo as he left the field. It’s not as if his play had been
out-of-this-world, but Garoppolo is at least an average starter in the
league, and he’s been replaced with an average starter at Iowa.
Chargers 35-13
Sunday Night
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
As always this is a pivotal match-up in the AFC North, and who better to provide us with analysis than Sunday Night Football color commentator Cris Collinsworth:
A lot to digest there CC, but I'll side with you on your pick.
Steelers 33-20
Monday Night
Kansas City @ Denver
Pat
Mahomes has started the season, and pretty much his NFL career (if
we’re not counting his lone start at the end of last season) by throwing
for 13 TDs and 0 interceptions. That puts him on track for 69 TDs on
the season. With a stat like that, it’s clear that this guy has it all
figured out. The Chiefs defense, on the other hand, is still trying to
get a handle on things. They’ve given up an average of about 31 points
per game, good for third worst in the league. Of course, they’re getting
by because the KC offense has scored the most points in the NFL entering Week 4.
Basically the Chiefs’ defense is the coaster in a group project. They
know that their class mate is such an over-achiever that they only have
to do so much on their end to get an A. And sure, that’s all well and good
for now, but what’s going to happen to the KC defense when they’re on
their own in the real world and they have to rely on themselves? Then
we’ll see how cool and laid back they are. They make me sick, and they'll win again this week.
Chiefs 31-26
