NFL Picks - Week 3

Sunday Morning 

 

New Orleans @ Atlanta

The Saints opened the season with home games against Tampa and Cleveland. On paper, before the season, that was seemingly the easiest schedule in the league. New Orleans barely managed to escape that stretch at 1-1. Not an encouraging start for a team that many considered a Super Bowl contender. In Week 1 their defense was obliterated. In Week 2 their offense could only manage 3 points prior to the 4th quarter. This alternating ineptitude on either side of the ball means the most likely outcome of this game is: special teams catastrophes! I’m guessing that punter Thomas Morstead will accidentally hit the ball too high in his drop and kick the ball directly into his own face mask, wedging it there. He’ll panic and attempt to get the first down, but since he won’t be able to see past the obstruction he’ll run the wrong direction, eventually crashing into the goal post stanchion once he races through his own end zone. The play will result in a safety and the end of Morstead’s career. He’ll retire out of embarrassment. This will result in New Orleans having to go for it on all subsequent 4th downs, due to their lack of a punter. This will not be beneficial.

Falcons 27-23 

Green Bay @ Washington 

After two weeks the Packers are undefeated and have outscored their opponents by a total of 1 point. That has to be the first time that’s ever happened, it’s almost a statistical impossibility. Thank God for ties! Meanwhile Washington followed up what looked like an impressive Week 1 effort with a real stinker at home last Sunday. That opening win in Arizona may continue to look less meaningful the more we see the Cardinals play. Could Green Bay cut loose and really run away with this one? I think so. Look for them to win by 3 maybe 4 points. 

Packers 23-20 

Indianapolis @ Philadelphia 

With Carson Wentz set to return to the field this Sunday it appears that the Nick Foles era is done for now. What will be your greatest memory of his time as the Eagles starting quarterback? For me it would be that time he won the Super Bowl and was named the game’s MVP. In two starts this season though Foles was unable to replicate his postseason success, only managing to throw for one touchdown pass. But isn’t it better that he’s been unremarkable? If he was just awesome now, that championship performance wouldn’t be quite so magical. So thank you Nick Foles for returning to mediocrity, and in the process making us all believe that on any given day we too can do something remarkable. The situation as it is also helps the Eagles smoothly transition back to Wentz without any hesitation. I expect Philly to grind out a win as their franchise QB shakes the rust off. And watching it all from the sidelines with an earpiece and a clipboard will be a schlub who happens to be the reigning Super Bowl MVP.

Eagles 19-17 

Buffalo @ Minnesota 

In the history of the NFL, two franchises are tied with for the worst Super Bowl record, at 0-4. You’re looking at them. Each of these fanbases are so intertwined with misery that it feels wrong to play this game in the sparkling new U.S. Bank Stadium. It would feel more appropriate at an abandoned mall. That’s more about history than anything though, because presently these teams look promising. For the Vikings, that means they have Super Bowl aspirations. For the Bills that means they’re promising that they’re actually trying to win football games. You could forgive anybody that’s watched them play this season for suspecting otherwise. The 17 point spread on this game is the highest of the season, but if I were Bills coach Sean McDermott I wouldn’t bring that up to my team; I wouldn’t want them getting a big head and thinking they can hang within 17 points of the Vikings. 

Vikings 31-6 

Oakland @ Miami 

Miami has a very real shot at remaining undefeated for another week. They may owe much of that to their soft schedule though. After this game we’ll likely be wondering, are these Phins 3-0 or 3 & faux? As for the Raiders, they let one slip away last week, and another close loss wouldn’t just leave them at 0-3, it would make them D’oh & 3. Hey Homer Simpson, get out of here man! And don’t have a cow while you’re at it! 

Dolphins 20-17 

Denver @ Baltimore 

Last season the Ravens were a mercurial team on their way to a 9-7 record. Their average win was by 18 points, whereas their average loss was by 10. So far in 2018 they’ve picked up right where they left off, winning their opener by 44 then dropping their next game by 11. It’s ironic that such an extremist squad is quarterbacked by a man that’s seemingly never shown a human emotion. The Broncos have won two close games so far, but as we just discussed, they shouldn’t count on this being a tight contest either way. I guess what I’m getting at here is that you shouldn’t bother watching this game. If it turns out to be really great don’t @ me, @ the stats ... or the st@s. 

Ravens 27-13 

Cincinnati @ Carolina 

Being in different conferences, these teams only play each other once every four years. So what happened when these two clashed in 2014 you ask? Are you sure you want to know? You might regret it ... Ok fine, but you asked for it. The last time the Carolina Panthers played the Cincinnati Bengals, on October the 12th in the year 2014 the winner was ... no one! They TIED! That’s right, in this, the season of the tie we’re having a tie rematch. We’ve seen one stalemate per Sunday so far, could this be our third in three weeks? Will they tie for the second straight time? A double knot? Of course! It’s fated to be.

TIE 26-26 

New York Giants @ Houston 

Talk about two teams who have had disappointing starts to the season ... Go ahead, talk about them, I don’t feel like writing right now ... Ugh, fine. You know I’ve been noticing you really don’t pull your weight around here. Deshaun Watson has so far failed to regain his rookie season form that saw him light up scoreboards and hearts alike. Meanwhile, Eli Manning has regained his past form, it’s just not the one New York was hoping for. I’m guessing the home team will get the win, but I’m not sure I should place any credence on whether the Giants are home or away, because Eli Manning clearly doesn’t know where he is at any given moment on a football field. 

Texans 24-16 

Tennessee @ Jacksonville 

In Week 2 the Jaguars took a step towards exorcising their postseason demons from last season by convincingly beating the Patriots behind a dominant effort from ... double-checking notes ... Blake Bortles. We’ve seen occasional flashes of brilliance from Bortles before that remind us that he was indeed the 3rd overall pick in the draft at one time. The real question, as always, is whether or not he can maintain this. If he can, the Jaguars will win the Super Bowl. Unfortunately the answer to that question has always been no. It's just a matter of figuring out when he falls back to earth and subsequently burrows beneath the ground into a hole from which no passes can escape. I say he stays up for air this Sunday and gets Jacksonville to 3-0. But if you see a giant dirt clod in the Jags’ backfield midway through the 2nd quarter you’ll know what’s happening.

Jaguars 29-9 

San Francisco @ Kansas City 

Here’s how I see this one going: Standing in the tunnel to the locker room, looking out to the field is a shadowy figure in a trench coat. It’s hard to make out his face but he exudes the vibe of a grizzled man, one who’s been ravaged by the inevitable march of time, one who’s seen a lot, perhaps too much. You may feel sympathy for him, but he’d never ask you to. Suddenly the sun glints on his weathered visage and we see that it’s Alex Smith. He’s returned to gaze upon his old squadrons and take account of how they’re doing in their new lives, with their new quarterbacks. But as quickly as we see that it’s him he turns to leave. Maybe because he doesn’t want anybody to know he was there. Or maybe he’s going to find a change of clothes because he’s wearing a trench coat and it’s 80 degrees in Kansas City. But probably because the Washington game is scheduled at the same time and he’s now running very late.

Chiefs 35-24 

Sunday Afternoon

Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams

It’s the battle of Los Angeles, but unfortunately this one won’t feature Aaron Eckhart. Unless he shows up to the game, but I doubt he will, he’s usually busy with other stuff on Sundays. Er, at least I imagine he is. Anyway, here we have the Rams versus that other team that plays in LA, and it could be a decent match-up. Normally in a split city environment (Giants/Jets or Raiders/Niners) the home team has to consider the likelihood that their crowd may not be as one-sided as usual. Something tells me that won’t be a factor in this one. In fact, there might even be fewer opposing fans than there normally are in the Coliseum. I’m not saying there won’t be any Charger fans in attendance, I assume Phil Rivers’ family will be there, which means LAC have at least 18 people pulling for them. Sadly I don’t think that will be enough.

Rams 31-19 

Dallas @ Seattle 

This is the Seahawks’ home opener and (somewhat sadly) the player that the people of Seattle may be most excited to see is rookie punter Michael Dickson. It’s really a great scenario for the struggling Seahawks offense, because even when they fail the crowd will still be buzzing on 4th down. But it’s not just punts, last week Dickson drop-kicked a penalty-shortened kickoff inside the 5 and then proceeded to attempt a drop-kick onside kick. The latter was far from effective, and was only attempted because Hawks’ kicker Sebastian Janikowski has (mind-bogglingly) never successfully converted a 4th quarter onside kick in his 17 year career. So in other words, the Seahawks will not be recovering an onside kick this season. But I don’t think that will be a problem, because I don’t expect them to be behind again in any 4th quarter from here on out. 

Seahawks 23-16 

Chicago @ Arizona 

If I were on the Cardinals I would feel very disrespected. They have to hear all this talk about how the Bills are the worst team in the league, as if they (the Cardinals) haven’t put up only 6 points over two weeks. As if they haven’t lost their games by 18 and 34 points. As if their quarterback isn't Sam Bradford. What more do these guys need to do to prove themselves to you?!? What, not reach double-digit points over the first 3 weeks combined? Will that make you happy? Very well. 

Bears 20-3 

Sunday Night 

New England @ Detroit 

After a tumultuous week off the field the Patriots travel to Detroit to take on the struggling Lions. And we look to Sunday Night Football analyst Cris Collinsworth to preview this match-up:

Thanks for the trivia CC! We'll keep our ears open.

Patriots 34-17

Monday Night 

Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay

It’s time for our new weekly feature, the Ryan Fitzpatrick MVP status check . Checking ... yep he’s still the NFL MVP. His main competition would probably be Patrick Mahomes, who just put up 6 TDs against the team that Fitzpatrick gets to feast on this Monday. The Steelers are in a state of disarray, with LeVeon Bell absent, Antonio Brown grumbling, and Ben Roethlisberger sounding as dim-witted as ever trying to publicly sweep everything under the rug. They’re dealing with all of this and now they have to go up against the presumptive NFL MVP? Good luck suckers! Mark Fitzpatrick down for another 400 yard 4TD night. 

Buccaneers 31-26 

 

NFL Picks - Week 3 Thursday

New York Jets @ Cleveland

A lot of people have poked fun at this match up, calling it atrocious, putrid, or an affront to the American people. But I, for one, will proudly watch this game. Is it because I would likely watch any NFL game on a Thursday due to the fact that I’m a cretin? Yeah, probably. But also I’m fascinated by the Browns. After last Sunday when they missed a go-ahead PAT and a game-tying field goal all within the last 1:16 of their loss to the Saints I’m now convinced that they’re allergic to winning. My first clue was when they went 0-16 last season. And then their opening week tie and blown chances in New Orleans really hammered it home. But these close calls show that Cleveland in sniffing around a win, and come Thursday, they may have picked up a scent. Browns win!  

Browns 20-16

NFL Picks - Week 2

Sunday Morning

Carolina @ Atlanta

Looks like I’ve picked up right where I left off. One week in and I’ve got a perfect record, just like last season. Hey, what are you doing? Don’t go back and check my picks, that’s not necessary ... why are you like this?!? I just wish we could trust each other again. That’s probably the same sentiment in the Falcons’ locker room after they began their 2018 season in almost the same exact fashion that their 2017 season ended, with repeated failed attempts to score the game-winning touchdown from 1st & Goal in Philadelphia. That’s a total of 9 attempts over those two games with 0 points. In last week’s game the Falcons had five trips inside the Philly 20 and only came away with 10 points. Clearly Atlanta has a broken red zone. That sounds hemorrhoidal, and for Falcons fans I’m sure it’s been precisely that painful. There’s so much pressure tied up in this situation that something is going to burst. Either with a torrent of points, or a catastrophic failure that results in Matt Ryan not being able to sit down without a donut. I’m guessing they’ll come through at home. 

Falcons 27-24 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo

Last week in this column I wondered, in all sincerity, who would finish Week 1 at quarterback for the Bills. As it turned out, it was not Nathan Peterman, who started the game and went 5-18 for 24 yards and 2 interceptions. It’s hard to get much worse than that. In fact, according to the quarterback rating calculations, you can't get worse than that, his rating for the game was a 0.0. Buffalo ended up losing the game 47-3. I don’t blame Peterman though, it’s not like he made the decision to start him. What’s he supposed to do, tell the coaches and front office that he’s not good enough to play? That’s just not realistic; we’re not living in a Sportsmanship, pass it on PSA. The Bills have been left with no choice but to start rookie Josh Allen at this point, though I would argue that they didn’t have a choice to begin with, yet still managed to make the incorrect one. Even with a new QB they probably won’t get a win ... perhaps this whole season. 

Chargers 30-13

  

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers wowed fans across the nation last Sunday night when he  returned to the field post-leg amputation, and still bleeding from multiple open and stab wounds. I didn’t see the game, but that’s what I’ve come to understand of the situation after hearing the postgame analysis and reading the internet. The Packers were lost without Rodgers when he was out in Week 1, and they won’t stand a chance against the Vikings if he doesn’t play this week. But, if Rodgers can somehow find the courage and strength to make it to the field Sunday the Packers have a shot. Who am I kidding, of course he’ll find the courage! He’s Aaron Rodgers, one of the most determined, intrepid athletes, nay, men in the world today. This man will limp his way through the game even if he doesn’t need to! He’s a hero damn it! That being said, I’m taking Minnesota.

Vikings 23-20 

Houston @ Tennessee 

Last week Bill O’Brien displayed maddeningly inconsistent strategy in regards to his 4th down playcalling against the Patriots. With 10 minutes to go and his team down 21-6 O’Brien went for it on 4th & 5 from the New England 17. It was an aggressive call, but probably the right one. It was also a call that makes this next one a bit of a head-scratcher. On 4th & 8 from his own 36, with 4:30 to play and his team down 27-13, O’Brien decided to punt. Obviously the field position isn’t optimal there, but with that much time left wouldn’t it make sense for the coach to stay aggressive and try to keep possession? It’s as if earlier in the game O’Brien thought, “This is how the Eagles beat these guys. We’re going for it!” But later in the game said, “That shit didn’t work. We’re punting.” As it turned out, the Patriots muffed that late punt leading to a Texans touchdown, but that’s not the point. The point is, I’m not sure Bill O’Brien knows exactly what he’s doing out there, and that makes Houston games even more entertaining than they already would have been. 

Texans 31-24 

Cleveland @ New Orleans

The bar was set so low for the Cleveland Browns that after their tie last Sunday they have officially clinched a better record than they had last season. Imagine that, coach Hue Jackson can already claim that this season is an improvement. Sure they still haven’t actually won a game, but you gotta crawl before you can walk. And then sometimes you get so excited that you're finally crawling that you try to go too fast and fall right back on your face. That’s most likely how it will go for the Browns this week. But they shouldn’t feel too bad, that happens to a lot of people in New Orleans. Normally it’s not in the middle of the SuperDome but on a curb in the French Quarter after a weekend you can recall very little of but you know on a deep, visceral level that it’s changed you forever ... Going against what promises to be an angry Saints team look for Cleveland to fall before they can once again crawl.

Saints 29-16 

Miami @ New York Jets

Sure the Jets turned some heads on Monday night, putting up 48 points and scoring in all three phases of the game, but I’d argue that the Dolphins’ Week 1 win was even more impressive. They outlasted the Titans in a 7 hour marathon! Miami can now lay claim to a win in the the longest game in NFL history. Sure the length was due to multiple, hours-long weather delays, but if we’re going to start focusing on technicalities and “facts” we’re not gonna have a whole lot of fun here folks. At this point I’m guessing you thought, “This is supposed to be fun?” To which I’d say, you’re still reading it ain’t ya jocko?!? Now at this point I’m furiously refreshing to verify that somebody has visited this page. It would make sense to side with New York after their breakout win last week, but methinks these Jets may be flying a bit too high. I’ll take Miami. And now ... REFRESH!

Dolphins 24-22 

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh 

Get ready for some points baby! Will this game be high scoring? All signs point to yes! Don’t bring your balloons up in here, there are going to be too many points! There are gonna be more points made than a debate tournament. We’re talking more points than a Sheraton hotel chain (I now realize that would only require the teams to combine for a total of 5 points, so maybe that one’s not as appropriate). The Chiefs’ offense looked electric last Sunday, and we all know how prolific the Steelers can be, especially at home. Meanwhile, both defenses struggled in Week 1. Factor all of that in, and this game figures to have more points than a bed of nails ... extra pointy nails!

Chiefs 38-35  

 

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

I have more faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick than most people, but even I was stunned by the numbers he put up in Tampa’s Week 1 win in New Orleans. Over 400 yards passing, 4 TDs through the air and another one on the ground. As I type this Ryan Fitzpatrick is the 2018 NFL MVP. Of course, most sportswriters wait until the end of the regular season to send in their MVP vote, but not me baby! That vote was immediately sent back to me with a note from the league claiming to not know who I am. Well clearly you know my e-mail address, and my name’s right in there, so I guess you do know who I am. Haha! Now who’s the idiot? You? Or me, the guy who mailed in an unsolicited MVP vote for Ryan Fitzpatrick after the first week? You can e-mail me your response. 

Eagles 20-16 

Indianapolis @ Washington

I’ll be honest, I didn’t get to see either of these teams play last week. I mean, the Sport Clips I watch games at only has so many TVs. From what I can tell though Andrew Luck looked decent in a home loss, and Washington was very solid in a road win. After processing that detailed, nuanced information it seems like Washington is the reasonable pick. And I’m nothing if not a reasonable guy who likes to chill, watch football, and chop it up with the boyz at Sport Clips for 6 hours every Sunday; haircut optional.

Washington 26-21 

Sunday Afternoon

Arizona @ Los Angeles Rams 

The Cardinals only managed 6 points in a home loss to Washington last week. The good news is that I’m not sure many people even realized that that game took place. The bad news is at least one person in the league office found out, because if you take a look at the official standings, Arizona is, in fact, listed at 0-1. If that first game is any indication, the Cardinals may prefer to not be noticed for the rest of the season. Sam Bradford amassed 153 yards on 34 attempts, a stat line that is more commonly referred to as a “Bradford” by league insiders. Much like the Peterman situation in Buffalo though, I don’t blame Sam Bradford. If teams are willing to give him 10s of millions of dollars to be mediocre or worse of course he’s going to accept. Hell, the league commissioner does the same thing. Ooh that’s right, I burned ya Goodell. Come at me bro! (He probably reads this, don’t you think?) Bradford and Arizona’s assignment figures to be more difficult this week, so expect another double-digit loss from the Cards and a single-digit yards per completion average from their QB.

Rams 34-9 

Detroit @ San Francisco

Hearts were broken across the nation last Sunday when Jimmy G lost his first game as a starter. The homeostasis we were living in was more delicate than we ever realized. Now as a people we must rebuild. Looking on the bright side, it was a tough match-up for the Niners at Minnesota in Week 1, so they can be forgiven for taking the L. The Lions, on the other hand, deserve our scorn and ridicule after an embarrassing 48-17 home loss to the Jets. If I simply compare those results San Francisco looks like the clear choice. But if I factor in the ... no, I got nothing else. 

49ers 27-20 

Oakland @ Denver 

Reportedly, one of the main reasons the Raiders didn’t make an attempt to give Khalil Mack a contract extension was that they didn’t want a giant chunk of their payroll tied up in two huge contracts. With Derek Carr being their other player under a mega deal, that means they basically chose Carr over Mack. After one week it appears obvious that that was a mistake. Carr was serviceable for stretches in Oakland's Week 1 loss, but threw 3 picks, while the Raiders' D struggled to generate a pass rush. But hey, enough about the Mack trade, it’s time to move on, regardless of how severely it will haunt Oakland for years to come. Look for the Broncos to get the win here, because ya know, they held on to their perennial all-pro pass rusher. 

Broncos 26-19 

Jacksonville @ New England

In a conference call with reporters on Wednesday Jags coach Doug Marrone revealed that he didn’t watch last year’s Super Bowl, and in fact, he hasn’t watched any Super Bowl for the past 30 years or so, due to the frustration he’s felt from not reaching the big game, be it as a player or coach. I suppose I can see where he’s coming from, but can you imagine what his reaction will be if he does get to the Super Bowl after not having seen one since the 80s? Does he know about Media Day? Or about all the pregame hoopla? Is he going to bring his team back out of the locker room after 15 minutes of halftime and say, “Why the hell is there a concert on the field? Whoa is that Lady Gaga?!?” Jacksonville has a shot at making it this season; if I were him I’d check out a couple of replays on the NFL Network to get acclimated just in case. Obviously the tension will be high on Sunday in this AFC title game rematch, and I expect the Jags to have vengeance on their minds. Will it drive them or blind them? Hard to say. Hopefully it doesn’t blindly drive them, that would be dangerous. 

Jaguars 22-20

Sunday Night 

New York Giants @ Dallas

Both teams come in to this match-up at 0-1 and desperate for a win to calm their fanbase. The best way I know to calm any fanbase is to listen to Cris Collinsworth speak, so here ya go:

Be well Cris.

Giants 23-17

Monday Night

Seattle @ Chicago

It’s week 2 of the Brandon Marshall Revenge Tour. Last week, against his former team the Broncos, he had a touchdown catch in a loss; so perhaps this week he’ll have a loss in a touchdown catch. No, that doesn’t work. Anyway, since the Seahawks don’t play the Dolphins, Jets, or Giants (jeez this guy’s played on a lot of teams, maybe that’s not a good sign ...) Marshall will have to unleash all of his remaining vengeance on Chicago this Monday. And Seattle will need him to with Doug Baldwin missing from what was a thin receiving corps to begin with. However, we now know that they have the ultimate weapon in blocking tight end and 100 yard receiver Will Dissly, so that should help. But back to Marshall; they say when setting out on a mission of revenge, dig two graves. Hopefully Marshall doesn’t take that literally, because that would just be a waste of energy, and he’d probably incur some sort of penalty for defacing the field. But if he strictly focuses on football (and catches like 3 touchdowns) Seattle should get the win.

Seahawks 24-19 

 

NFL Picks - Week 2 Thursday

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

The Ravens come into this Thursday night game riding a tidal wave of momentum after a 47-3 Week 1 win over the Bills. However, that 44 point margin is a bit of a misnomer. First of all, the game was in Baltimore, and oddsmakers will tell you that a homefield advantage is generally worth about 3 points. Secondly, Buffalo was starting Nathan Peterman at quarterback, which oddsmakers will tell you is generally worth about 30 points. So when you take away their inherit advantages, the Ravens really only won that game by 11 points. That’s still a solid opening effort. In fact, it was the same margin of victory for the Bengals in their win over the Colts in Indianapolis. Clearly that puts these teams on equal footing. Since this game is being played in Cincinnati, and neither team is starting Nathan Peterman at quarterback, it stands to reason that the Bengals will win by 3.

Bengals 23-20