NFL Picks - Week 12

Movember Link


SEASON: 101-59-1

Sunday Morning


Las Vegas at Atlanta

The Raiders are 4-1 on the road so far this season, much better than their 2-3 mark at home. Maybe it just goes to show that it’s never a good idea to spend a whole week in Vegas. Clearly they’re enjoying their opportunities to get out of town, recharge their batteries, and win football games. They’re not distracted all week playing slots, watching George Wallace’s 10pm show, and downing slushie booze out of a guitar. On the flip side, the Falcons must be overwhelmed by the weight of all the political attention heaped upon their city. How else would you explain their 1-4 home record? Well, I guess you could explain it by pointing out that they’re 2-3 on the road, which also isn’t very good. Fair. This is one of those games where nothing’s gotta give, so why fight it? That’s my motto in this situation, and whenever I'm presented with the opportunity to drink out of a guitar. 


Raiders 31-23

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo 

When the Chargers intentionally took a safety at the end of their Week 11 game against the Jets it was probably the right strategical move as it left them ahead by 6 with :01 left. But the fact that there was :01 left meant that it was still possible, if not likely, that LA would lose. A walk-off free kick return for a touchdown would be new even for the Chargers. At that point we would have known that there was no saving them. Their addiction to calamity would have completely taken them over, with no hope of recovery. Now, that doesn’t mean that they won’t get to that point one day, but at least they avoided rock bottom against the winless Jets. The Bills are coming off a ridiculous loss themselves, having fallen to a Hail Mary two weeks ago. To make matters worse, their bye came immediately afterwards, so they’ve had an extra week to think about it. In a way this game is something like a rehab, and the Chargers are their grizzled sponsor. They’ve been there before plenty of times and can help guide Buffalo back to health. Step one is admitting you have a problem. Step two is playing the Chargers and realizing things could be a lot worse. 


Bills 35-30

New York Giants at Cincinnati 

The Giants are on a roll! They’ve won 2(!) in a row, which is a monumental enough feat in its own right, but now they have a very good chance at making it 3. You see, their Week 12 opponent Cincinnati is coming off a season-ending injury. Whoops, I meant to say that the Bengals' rookie quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury, but in reality my Freudian slip was quite apropos (it was also bogus, because this is in writing, which means a Freudian slip is not possible). Now that Burrow is out, the Bengals may as well lose the remainder of their games and build towards 20 ... well if we’re being honest, probably 2022 based on Burrow’s injury. The good news for Cincy is that with Brandon Allen at quarterback they probably won’t have to try to lose, it’ll just come naturally. Really the best of both worlds, they don’t have to tank, and they’ll end up with a great draft pick. Well, I suppose the best of both worlds would be to win every game and still get a top 5 pick. But that's just asking too much. Unless they made a trade with the Texans that I’m not aware of, which is definitely possible.

Giants 24-16 

Tennessee at Indianapolis 

Wow, it feels like only two weeks ago that these teams played each other for the first time! Well guess again jocko, because it will actually be 17 days in between match-ups. “But I’m reading this on a Friday, so it’s only been ... damn it, 15 days. Still longer than two weeks. You’ve done it, you’ve bested me again. You’re so intelligent, and handsome. I can never get one over on you! And I wouldn’t have it any other way. In this life we must have role models, or even idols to look up to so that we continue to challenge ourselves to improve. I thank you sir for being just that for so many of us. And for taking on the added burden of having no such idols yourself! What a struggle it must be to propel yourself to ever greater heights, but yet you continue to do so on a weekly basis. I am humbled by your sacrifice and grateful for your sustained excellence. Bravo monsieur, bravo!” Yep, that’s right asshole, I zinged ya good!

Titans 30-27

Carolina at Minnesota 

After a 1-5 start to their season, the Vikings came into last week at 4-5 with a chance to get within one game of playoff position. Instead, they lost to the Cowboys and now find themselves in worse shape than Dallas, somehow (and again, the “somehow” is the NFC East). Meanwhile, the Panthers are coming off a shutout victory and are now ... also nowhere near the postseason. So what we’re left with is possibly Sunday’s least consequential game. And when there are no consequences you can throw caution to the wind! I’m talking, going for it on all fourth downs, trick plays, letting Kirk Cousins throw it. That’s right, it’s about to get wild in (searching for the name ...) U.S. Bank Stadium. And none of it will have any lasting effect! I wish you could say the same about that second slice of pie I had on Thursday! Or the third helping of turkey! Or the potatoes, there were a lot of potatoes. If I’m being honest, I went back for more and took the last of them before some of the kids had even had a chance to eat. I’m uh I’m not proud of it. But hey, that’s all behind us, and now we all get to move on and watch Panthers/Vikings! I think I need to make some changes.

Vikings 31-24

Arizona at New England 

The Patriots are on the edge of elimination. Not mathematically, but one more loss would bring them to 4-7 and effectively end their season. It kind of makes me think that Belichick will make a last stand here and use whatever’s up his sleeve to stay alive for another week. Then again, wouldn’t he have used everything in his arsenal already? A magician’s not going to wait to reveal the ending of their big trick until after the audience has left. Unless they appeared in each of their homes to finish the trick, and that was all a part of the show. Now that would be something! Is that what Belichick is planning on doing? I hope not. No visitors allowed Bill. Plus you seem like a COVID truther, because any sort of instruction from the CDC would infringe on the absolute power you wield in all other aspects of your life. Pfft, what a big man you are! Ya know what, I want you to lose now ... because of this narrative I made up and talked myself into!

Cardinals 24-17

Miami at New York Jets 

The Dolphins can’t seem to figure out what they want. About a month ago they were 3-3 and decided to move to their rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He didn’t necessarily light the world on fire, but the team had won all of his starts, and was 6-3 entering last Sunday’s game in Denver. Then the offense played like garbage leading coach Brian Flores to bench Tua and reinsert Ryan Fitzpatrick. Eventually Fitz got them within striking distance before throwing a game-ending interception, which is something that could have been typed multiple times in each of the last 10 seasons. So apparently Miami, a team that seemingly had a more broad scope, is now very focused on winning as many games as possible this season. They’re trying to have their cake and eat it too. But it’s late November guys, this is a time for pie! It’s also time to choose your strategy and stick to it. Either let Tua develop while taking his licks, and maybe helping you to the playoffs. Or ride that magical Fitzpatrick train as far as it takes you, while keeping in mind that it almost certainly will not benefit your long term future. This is almost exactly how every season of the Bachelor/Bachelorette ends, and it promises to be just as entertaining. So, mildly.

Dolphins 27-13

Cleveland at Jacksonville 

In their game against the Steelers last week the Jags tried an onside kick in the first quarter. Clearly they felt their offense was over-matched and thought maybe they could steal an extra possession. It’s not that out of the ordinary for a big underdog to attempt such a move. What was surprising was that the player who kicked the ball was wide receiver Keelan Cole! See that's is the type of nothing-to-lose, aggressively reckless attitude I’m here to see! Look, Jacksonville already guaranteed that they wouldn’t suffer the ignominy of going 0-16, they took care of that in Week 1. Now they’re free to do whatever the hell they want, and I can’t wait to see what’s next ... What’s this? They’re starting Mike Glennon at quarterback?!? It just keeps getting better! If you want some sloppy fun, look no further than Mike Glennon. Hey, that’s not just my opinion, that’s a direct quote from his Tinder profile. Don’t believe me? Hold on, let me get on my catfishing account and switch my location setting to Jacksonville, I’ll get you a screenshot soon. Standby ...

Browns 20-9

Sunday Afternoon


New Orleans at Denver

There’s still a lot of buzz around Saints backup quarterback Taysom Hill and whether or not the team can continue to win in Drew Brees’s absence. And sure, that’s an important question. But what I want know is: can dem Bayou boys hand the thin Denver air? Their lungs are used to that thick, swampy stuff down in New Ahhhhlinz. The defense might be coughing up gumbo by the end of the first quarter. Look folks, I’m no scientist, and I very rarely claim to be one, I just know that that sort of atmospheric change can wreak havoc on a frozen pizza, let alone an NFL player. Don’t believe me? Check the cooking instructions of your next Freschetta! Now that’s not to say that the Saints can’t, or won’t adapt, but don’t be surprised if Taysom Hill looks like this at the end of the game.

Saints 23-20

San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams lost to the 49ers in Week 6, which makes this something of a revenge game. And it’s a lot easier to get that vengeance when the other team is left with a roster that's almost entirely backups. It’s like finally finding the man who killed you father and seeing that he’s already in a coma. Do you just put a pillow over his head? That doesn’t seem very satisfying. Are we sure he can even hear the speech you prepared? I know that they say people in comas can hear, but I don’t know, there’s a lot machines humming and beeping here, and from all the intel you’ve gathered about this guy in your quest it doesn’t seem like his hearing was that great to begin with. Oof, well this just is not how you imagined it huh? Sorry Rams, even if you get your win back here you’ll just be smothering a coma victim. Hope you’re proud of yourselves. I, for one, am not impressed. Frankly a little disgusted if you want the truth.

Rams 31-13

Kansas City at Tampa Bay

After former Bucs kicker Matt Gay beat Tampa with a late field goal on Monday he said, “You can’t write it.” Totally. Though, hold on, let me give it a shot: Kicker who no one remembers plays former team and makes two field goals of modest length to help new team win. Whoa, I think I did it! Guess it wasn’t as out of this world as Matt Gay, the guy who kicked the field goals, thought it was. I hope the Bucs won’t be too preoccupied nursing their third degree burns, because they’re facing the defending Super Bowl champs this Sunday. And this isn’t like when the ‘99 Broncos were defending their title with Brian Griese and we all just thought it was cute that they still tried. No, these Chiefs are the favorite to repeat. Well, they’re the only team that can repeat, but you get what I mean. KC is looking primed for a run to Super Bowl LV after their win over LV. And hey, by beating the Raiders they got their Kings of the AFC crown back in the process! Don’t remember what that is because it’s a fake thing I came up with and am now riding out? No problem. Guess you don’t like fun, but no, it’s no problem. From what I’ve seen of Tampa this season it seems like they need a couple big turnovers for them to win a game. I did not do the research on that, so don’t at me. Anyway, I don’t see Mahomes giving those up, so I’ll go with the Chiefs here. Now, let’s see you try to write that Matt Gay. Does anybody have his e-mail address so I can forward him the link?

Chiefs 31-26

Sunday Night


Chicago at Green Bay

The Packers can step on the collective throat of the NFC North with a victory over the fading Bears. Will they do so, or does Chicago have a surprise waiting for them? A loss surprise! Let's find out what SNF analyst Cris Collinsworth thinks:

I, for one, think it's time for Chicago to see what they have in Gruntor. otherwise they should stop wasting his time and theirs'.

Packers 26-15

Monday Night


Seattle at Philadelphia 

After a dismal performance by his quarterback in Cleveland in Week 11 Doug Pederson publicly stated that Carson Wentz would remain the Eagles’ starter. And I agree with Pederson’s decision. Sure, Wentz has been among the worst full-time starters in the NFL this season, but it’s not like Philly has some sort of exciting rookie backup to plug in for a much needed jolt to ignite their dying ember of a season. Oh that’s right, they drafted Jalen Hurts in the second round. Hmm, yeah actually that would be pretty interesting to see at this point. Then again, can the Eagles afford to take that sort of risk? They’re now slightly behind in the NFC East, and if they want to regain their playoff position and prove themselves against a possible postseason opponent, maybe it’s best to stay the course. Though, the course so far is what led them to being slightly behind in the NFC EAST! So perhaps change is needed. It's a tough decision, I don’t envy you Doug Pederson. Just kidding, you’re a Super Bowl winning coach with a trophy outside your stadium, give me your life!

Seahawks 17-9

Maybe Sunday or Monday or Tuesday ...


Baltimore at Pittsburgh 

After the Ravens’ third loss in four games, Lamar Jackson was lamenting his team’s recent play when he added that it feels like no one is rooting for them. Unfortunately, that comes with success. When a team does well enough, there will inevitably be a backlash in which ... Wait a minute, does he just mean because the stadium isn’t full? Like is he literally saying it feels like no one is rooting for them because he can’t hear people cheering? He knows that’s how it is across the league right? If the stands had been full the Ravens may not have been the only birds on the field Sunday. I’m speaking of the boo birds, of course! Baltimore blew an 11 point lead in their loss to Tennessee and now find themselves on the outside of the AFC playoff picture. The Ravens also won’t be the only birds on the field this Sunday, since, as we all know, turkeys will be placed at the corners of each end zone since this game was originally scheduled for Thanksgiving. If these birds are disturbed in any way, the offending party must carve and consume 2lbs of meat until he is allowed to return to action. It’s a grand tradition that very few people seem to know about, or believe when I try to explain it to them. Taking that special rule into account, the Steelers should be extra careful, seeing as how a win will clinch the division for them. Oh whoops, I forgot about the Browns! Can ya blame me? So fine, either way, if Pittsburgh can steer clear of those glistening, edible pylons, they should end the evening with their hold on the AFC North as snug as all of our belts by the time this weekend is done!


Steelers 27-20



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